As we get ready for TRUECAR, INC. (NASDAQ:TRUE) earnings, we have an opportunity to take a quantitative approach to preparation. The company’s first numbers are slated to hit the wires after market close (confirmed) on May 11, 2017. Hence, it’s a good time to take a thorough look at the company’s historical behavior around earnings, as well as where current expectations stand for performance in the quarter.

TRUECAR, INC. (NASDAQ:TRUE) Historical Stock Behavior Data for Earnings Reports

According to market and research data, the company’s average earnings surprise was -53.99 percent, when looking at the prior year. Let’s look at how these four reports worked out in detail.

The company put up an EPS number of -0.01 on February 16, 2017. That topped the consensus expectation of $-0.05, representing a Negative surprise of -78.59% That report showed a top line number of $74.08M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $71.31M. In reaction, the stock jumped 8.53% on the next day. A week later, the price change was 6.42%.

The company put up an EPS number of $-0.01 on November 03, 2016. That compared with a consensus expectation of $-0.06, representing a Negative surprise -83.02%. That report also showed a top line number of $75.14M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $71.17M put out by analysts ahead of the report. That spurred a move of 13.93% a day later. Seven days after that, the stock had posted a net move of 21.81%.

If we look back at August 04, 2016, we see a company able to log an EPS print of $-0.05. That topped the projected outlook of $-0.10, handing the market a Negative surprise of -48.29%. Sales came in at $66.43M, which countered expectations of $65.52M, leading to a net move in shares of 3.02% the following day, and 9.26% seven days out.

Finally, on May 05, 2016, we saw a Negative surprise of -6.06% when the company came to the table with an EPS of $-0.07, answering analysts at $-0.07 on the bottom line. The top line hit at $61.86M (versus $61.13M).

TRUECAR, INC. (NASDAQ:TRUE): What’s the Word on the Street? 

This time around, Q1 is expected to offer up an EPS point of $-0.02, with a range of $-0.04-$0. The top line expectation range out from analysts right now is at $71.5M-$75.69M, pushing a mean of $73.02M.

Shares of TRUECAR, INC. (NASDAQ:TRUE) printed a last close of $17.67, which pushes the total market value of the company to roughly $1.58B. Where is it headed from here? It’s impossible to say, but analysts currently have a consensus 12-month target out right now at $16.68.

Looking at recent action, we’ve seen shares declined -1.06% off trailing year highs, but advance overall 1 a ytd basis. The stock has been bouncing in a recent range defined by the $17.27-$17.83 levels, with transactions averaging about 2,833,643 shares per day. Over about the past week, the stock has moved nearly 11.48% higher, representing a total gain of 209.46% off its 52-week low.

Finally, the summary performance stats on reporting suggest that there is roughly a 62 percent chance that the stock up in reaction to its next quarterly data peek. If we dig a bit deeper, we can see that shares of the stock saw gains about up 5 out of 8 quarters on recent record. As far as the actual results, the company has “beaten the number” at a rate of roughly 54% over its past 12 reports. On the other hand, the company swung and missed 3 times, with 2 instances of inline data. At present, the company’s stock price per share has shifted about 32.6% percent since the last time it turned in a report card, when it was printing orders around $13.25/share.