As we get ready for First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) earnings, we have an opportunity to take a quantitative approach to preparation. The company’s first numbers are slated to hit the wires after market close (confirmed) on May 02, 2017. Hence, it’s a good time to take a thorough look at the company’s historical behavior around earnings, as well as where current expectations stand for performance in the quarter.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) Historical Stock Behavior Data for Earnings Reports
According to market and research data, the company’s average earnings surprise was 57.94 percent, when looking at the prior year. Let’s look at how these four reports worked out in detail.
The company put up an EPS number of 1.24 on February 21, 2017. That topped the consensus expectation of $0.97, representing a Positive surprise of 28.40% That report showed a top line number of $480.43M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $412.76M. In reaction, the stock dropped -8.33% on the next day. A week later, the price change was -1.17%.
The company put up an EPS number of $1.22 on November 02, 2016. That compared with a consensus expectation of $0.74, representing a Positive surprise 64.24%. That report also showed a top line number of $688.03M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $988.6M put out by analysts ahead of the report. That spurred a move of -14.96% a day later. Seven days after that, the stock had posted a net move of -20.90%.
If we look back at August 03, 2016, we see a company able to log an EPS print of $0.87. That topped the projected outlook of $0.54, handing the market a Positive surprise of 59.72%. Sales came in at $934.38M, which countered expectations of $862.68M, leading to a net move in shares of -11.21% the following day, and -21.49% seven days out.
Finally, on April 27, 2016, we saw a Positive surprise of 79.38% when the company came to the table with an EPS of $1.66, answering analysts at $0.93 on the bottom line. The top line hit at $848.48M (versus $973.39M).
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR): What’s the Word on the Street?
This time around, Q1 is expected to offer up an EPS point of $-0.13, with a range of $-0.25-$0.03. The top line expectation range out from analysts right now is at $239.4M-$1.2B, pushing a mean of $667.8M.
Shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) printed a last close of $29.55, which pushes the total market value of the company to roughly $3.07B. Where is it headed from here? It’s impossible to say, but analysts currently have a consensus 12-month target out right now at $35.19.
Looking at recent action, we’ve seen shares declined -48.35% off trailing year highs, but advance overall 1 a ytd basis. The stock has been bouncing in a recent range defined by the $29.23-$30.03 levels, with transactions averaging about 2,899,662 shares per day. Over about the past week, the stock has moved nearly 9.12% higher, representing a total gain of 15.61% off its 52-week low.
Finally, the summary performance stats on reporting suggest that there is roughly a 68 percent chance that the stock down in reaction to its next quarterly data peek. If we dig a bit deeper, we can see that shares of the stock saw gains about down 20 out of 29 quarters on recent record. As far as the actual results, the company has “beaten the number” at a rate of roughly 75% over its past 12 reports. On the other hand, the company swung and missed 3 times, with 0 instances of inline data. At present, the company’s stock price per share has shifted about -19.6% percent since the last time it turned in a report card, when it was printing orders around $36.62/share.