As we get ready for Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) earnings, we have an opportunity to take a quantitative approach to preparation. The company’s third numbers are slated to hit the wires after market close (confirmed) on August 01, 2017. Hence, it’s a good time to take a thorough look at the company’s historical behavior around earnings, as well as where current expectations stand for performance in the quarter.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) Historical Stock Behavior Data for Earnings Reports

According to market and research data, the company’s average earnings surprise was 8.34 percent, when looking at the prior year. Let’s look at how these four reports worked out in detail.

The company put up an EPS number of 0.09 on April 27, 2017. That missed the consensus expectation of $0.09, representing a Negative surprise of 0.00% That report showed a top line number of $199.7M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $206.05M. In reaction, the stock dropped -11.28% on the next day.

The company put up an EPS number of $0.04 on February 02, 2017. That compared with a consensus expectation of $0.05, representing a Positive surprise 22.18%. That report also showed a top line number of $167.2M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $181.36M put out by analysts ahead of the report. That spurred a move of 1.26% a day later. Seven days after that, the stock had posted a net move of -4.23%.

If we look back at November 02, 2016, we see a company able to log an EPS print of $0.17. That missed the projected outlook of $0.18, handing the market a Positive surprise of 3.19%. Sales came in at $302.5M, which countered expectations of $325.14M, leading to a net move in shares of -11.48% the following day, and 0.75% seven days out.

Finally, on August 03, 2016, we saw a Positive surprise of 7.98% when the company came to the table with an EPS of $0.18, answering analysts at $0.17 on the bottom line. The top line hit at $310.1M (versus $316.14M).

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA): What’s the Word on the Street? 

This time around, Q3 is expected to offer up an EPS point of $0.16, with a range of $0.13-$0.2. The top line expectation range out from analysts right now is at $231M-$244.5M, pushing a mean of $235.85M.

Shares of Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) printed a last close of $11.12, which pushes the total market value of the company to roughly $2.03B. Where is it headed from here? It’s impossible to say, but analysts currently have a consensus 12-month target out right now at $14.75.

Looking at recent action, we’ve seen shares declined -21.44% off trailing year highs, but advance overall 1 a ytd basis. The stock has been bouncing in a recent range defined by the $11.05-$11.28 levels, with transactions averaging about 3,114,660 shares per day. Over about the past week, the stock has moved nearly -10.39% higher, representing a total gain of 9.52% off its 52-week low.

Finally, the summary performance stats on reporting suggest that there is roughly a 60 percent chance that the stock up in reaction to its next quarterly data peek. If we dig a bit deeper, we can see that shares of the stock saw gains about up 17 out of 28 quarters on recent record. As far as the actual results, the company has “beaten the number” at a rate of roughly 16% over its past 12 reports. On the other hand, the company swung and missed 4 times, with 6 instances of inline data. At present, the company’s stock price per share has shifted about 0.0% percent since the last time it turned in a report card, when it was printing orders around $12.68/share.