As we get ready for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) earnings, we have an opportunity to take a quantitative approach to preparation. The company’s first numbers are slated to hit the wires after market close (confirmed) on May 01, 2017. Hence, it’s a good time to take a thorough look at the company’s historical behavior around earnings, as well as where current expectations stand for performance in the quarter.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) Historical Stock Behavior Data for Earnings Reports

According to market and research data, the company’s average earnings surprise was 7.73 percent, when looking at the prior year. Let’s look at how these four reports worked out in detail.

The company put up an EPS number of 0.29 on May 01, 2017. That missed the consensus expectation of $0.38, representing a Positive surprise of 22.73% That report showed a top line number of $484.71M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $497.51M.

The company put up an EPS number of $0.37 on February 21, 2017. That compared with a consensus expectation of $0.38, representing a Positive surprise 1.41%. That report also showed a top line number of $481.64M, which compares to a consensus estimate of $483.75M put out by analysts ahead of the report. That spurred a move of -12.31% a day later. Seven days after that, the stock had posted a net move of -11.49%.

If we look back at November 01, 2016, we see a company able to log an EPS print of $0.47. That topped the projected outlook of $0.45, handing the market a Positive surprise of 4.70%. Sales came in at $508.81M, which countered expectations of $509.84M, leading to a net move in shares of -2.41% the following day, and -1.44% seven days out.

Finally, on August 01, 2016, we saw a Positive surprise of 2.06% when the company came to the table with an EPS of $0.55, answering analysts at $0.54 on the bottom line. The top line hit at $515.56M (versus $515.88M).

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH): What’s the Word on the Street? 

This time around, Q1 is expected to offer up an EPS point of $0.52, with a range of $0.49-$0.56. The top line expectation range out from analysts right now is at $549.5M-$565.6M, pushing a mean of $556.42M.

Shares of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) printed a last close of $45.98, which pushes the total market value of the company to roughly $3.29B. Where is it headed from here? It’s impossible to say, but analysts currently have a consensus 12-month target out right now at $45.35.

Looking at recent action, we’ve seen shares declined -8.47% off trailing year highs, but advance overall 1 a ytd basis. The stock has been bouncing in a recent range defined by the $45.57-$47.08 levels, with transactions averaging about 2,922,691 shares per day. Over about the past week, the stock has moved nearly -0.35% higher, representing a total gain of 24.60% off its 52-week low.

If we dig a bit deeper, we can see that shares of the stock saw gains about up 15 out of 29 quarters on recent record. As far as the actual results, the company has “beaten the number” at a rate of roughly 33% over its past 12 reports. On the other hand, the company swung and missed 6 times, with 2 instances of inline data. At present, the company’s stock price per share has shifted about -0.4% percent since the last time it turned in a report card, when it was printing orders around $/share.