EUR/USD Bounce Cut Short on ECB – Technical Levels


Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro up to date technical trade ranges & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD restoration off downtrends help in focus- risk for topside exhaustion forward
  • Weekly help 1.0000/24 (key), 9902; resistance 1.0340, 1.0483, 1.0637 (crucial)

Euro is poised to snap a three-week dropping streak with EUR/USD rebounding off technical downtrend help after plunging greater than 5% in July. The restoration is in focus and we’re on the lookout for doable topside exhaustion on the heels of at this time’s European Central Bank (ECB) rate of interest determination with the broader danger nonetheless weighted to the draw back whereas under the month-to-month open at 1.0483. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the EUR/USD weekly value chart. Review my newest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and extra.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: Into the open of July, our Euro Weekly Price Forecast famous that the EUR/USD had, “plunged into support near the yearly lows into the start of July / Q3. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops – rallies should be capped by 1.0637 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break / close below 1.0340 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price.” Euro plunged via help two-days later with a decline of practically 4.5% probing confluent downtrend help final week at parity / 1999 low-week shut at 1.0000/24 (intraweek low registered at 9952). Is a near-term low in place?

Initial weekly resistance now eyed again on the 2017 low at 1.0340 backed by the month-to-month open at 1.0483 and the 2021 channel / 2020 swing low at 1.0637. Ultimately, a breach / weekly shut above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly 2021 decline at 1.0867 (bearish invalidation). Weekly help regular at parity with a break / shut under the 78.6% retracement of the 2000 rally at 9902 wanted to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Note {that a} break right here might gasoline one other accelerated bout of Euro losses with such a situation exposing subsequent goals on the 2001 excessive at close to 9595.

Bottom line: Euro has rebounded off confluent downtrend support- the risk stays for some restoration throughout the broader decline. From at buying and selling standpoint, be on the lookout for topside exhaustion on this restoration – rallies must be capped by 1.0483 IF value is heading nonetheless heading decrease on this stretch with an in depth under 99 wanted to gasoline the subsequent leg in value. Review my newest Euro Short-term Price Outlook for a better have a look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade ranges.

For a whole breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluation his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Retail Positioning - EURUSD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long EUR/USD – the ratio stands at +1.76 (63.72% of merchants are lengthy) – usually a bearish studying
  • Long positions are0.49% greater than yesterday and 22.41% decrease from final week
  • Short positions are1.18% decrease than yesterday and 26.94% greater from final week
  • We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests EUR/USD costs might proceed to fall. Traders are extra net-long than yesterday however much less net-long from final week. The mixture of present positioning and up to date adjustments provides us an extra blended EUR/USD buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Eurozone / US Economic Calendar

Eurozone / US Economic Calendar - EUR/USD Key Data Releases  - EURUSD Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion danger.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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