AUD/USD Rally Rips into Resistance


Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade degree replace – Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD rebound off downtrend help testing resistance– threat for worth inflection
  • Aussie resistance 6991-7016 (key) 7188-7207- Support 6792 (important), 6660/70, 6461

The Australian Dollar rallied almost 5% off the yearly lows towards the US Dollar with AUD/USD reversing off downtrend help earlier within the month. A two-week restoration now takes Aussie into the primary technical downtrend resistance zone and we’re on the lookout for a response right here into the shut of the week / month for steerage. Is this only a bear-market bounce or is there a bigger correction underway? These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart. Review my newest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and extra.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my final AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast we famous that AUD/USD was, “testing downtrend support on building momentum divergence for nearly four weeks now and the immediate short-bias may be vulnerable while above the lower parallel. From at trading standpoint, rallies should be capped by 7000 IF price is still heading lower on this stretch…” Aussie turned sharply off development help with a two-week rally now testing key resistance at 6991- 7016– a area outlined by the November 2020 swing low, the target 2020 yearly open, the 2021 lows and the January low-week shut. We’re on the lookout for worth inflection into this zone.

A topside breach / weekly shut above could be wanted to recommend a bigger correction is underway right here with such a situation exposing the 38.2% retracement / May high-week shut / 52-week shifting common at 7188-7207. Support now rests with the low-week shut at 6792 – notice {that a} break / shut under this threshold may threaten one other accelerated decline for the Aussie with preliminary help targets eyed on the 2008 low-week shut / 2019 low at 6660/70 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of all the 2020 rally at 6461.

Bottom line: A rebound off downtrend help takes AUD/USD into the primary main downtrend resistance zone – on the lookout for attainable worth inflection up right here. From a buying and selling standpoint, an excellent zone to cut back short-exposure / elevate protecting stops – watch the weekly / month-to-month shut with respect to 6991-7016 for steerage. I’ll publish an up to date Australian Dollar Price Outlook as soon as we get additional readability on the near-term AUD/USD technical trade ranges.

For a whole breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluation his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment reveals merchants are net-long AUD/USD – the ratio stands at +1.17 (53.96% of merchants are lengthy) – usually weak bearish studying
  • Long positions are 4.09% decrease than yesterday and 10.58% decrease from final week
  • Short positions are5.85% decrease than yesterday and 9.74% larger from final week
  • We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests AUD/USD costs might proceed to fall. Traders are extra net-long than yesterday however much less net-long from final week. From a sentiment standpoint, the mixture of present positioning and up to date modifications offers us an extra blended AUD/USD buying and selling bias.

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— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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