NDX Fed Rally Faces Downtrend Resistance


Nasdaq Technical Price Outlook: Short-term Trade Levels

  • Nasdaq technical trade degree replace – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • NDX rally off downtrend help testing downtrend resistance- threat for worth inflection
  • Resistance 12630, 12854(key), 13225- Support 12041, 11520/658 (vital), 11127

The Nasdaq has rallied greater than 14.7% off the lows with the index now approaching confluent, downtrend resistance. This is the primary actual check of the June rally and we’re looking out for doable worth inflection into the shut of the week / month. These are the targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the Nasdaq technical worth charts into the shut of the week. Review my newest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this NDX technical setup and extra.

Nasdaq Price Chart – NDX Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Nasdaq on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: The Nasdaq has been buying and selling throughout the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2021 highs – a reversal simply forward of the decrease parallel in June has rallied into confluent downtrend resistance on the 100% extension of the advance at 12630. We’re looking out for doable worth inflection right here. A topside breach / shut above the April low-close at 12854 could be wanted to validate a bigger breakout. That mentioned, the fast advance is weak whereas beneath.

Nasdaq Price Chart – NDX 240min

Nasdaq Price Chart - NDX 240min - NQ Short-term Trade Outlook - NAS100 Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Nasdaq on Tradingview

Notes: A better take a look at short-term Nasdaq worth motion reveals the index rallying into confluence resistance on the heels of yesterday’s Fed price choice. Initial help rests at 12041 backed by 11520/685– a break / shut beneath this threshold could be wanted to mark resumption of the braoder downtrend with such a scneario exposing subsequent help goals on the yearly low-day shut at 11127 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 advance at 10589.

A topside breach of this formation into the August open would recommend a extra vital low was registered final month and shift the main focus in direction of preliminary resistance on the 38.2% retracement at 13225– look for a bigger response there IF reached.

Bottom line: A restoration off downtrend help takes the Nasdaq into downtrend resistance and we’re in search of doable inflection up right here into the shut of the week / month. From a buying and selling standpoint, a superb area to cut back long-exposure / increase protecting stops – losses needs to be restricted to 12041 IF worth is heading larger on this stretch. That mentioned, we’re looking out for doable topside exhaustion on a stretch larger right here – rallies needs to be capped by 12854 for the broader short-bias to stay viable. Review my final Nasdaq Weekly Technical Forecast for a better take a look at the longer-term SPX 500 technical trade ranges.

For a whole breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluate his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy

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-Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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