Week Ahead: ballot papers to go out to Conservative party members

Hello and welcome to the working week. Today I’m stepping in for Jonathan Moules, who’s off on vacation.

This week, the Conservative management contest caravan strikes from parliament to the membership within the nation. Ballots are anticipated to land on the doormats of 150,000 Tory party members within the subsequent few days, whereas the finalists Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak will go head to head in one other televised debate on Sky News on Thursday at 8pm.

But have Tory members already made their minds up? Polls have proven Truss pulling forward of the previous chancellor among the many rank and file. Stephen Bush, who helms the Inside Politics e-newsletter, warns that Sunak has restricted time to shut the hole with Truss, as “most Conservative members will vote right away when their ballot papers arrive”.

Whoever clinches victory within the management race shall be inheriting a wave of commercial discontent. Thousands of BT staff will stroll out on Monday for the second of two strikes, led by the Communication Workers Union, in a dispute over pay. In response to BT’s £1,500 pay deal provided to workers in April, the CWU mentioned firm bosses had “stuck two fingers up” to employees. Dockers on the UK’s greatest container port are additionally anticipated to strike in August.

Across the Atlantic, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán will converse on the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, regardless of a global backlash following a speech he gave about race that led to the resignation of considered one of his shut aides, who referred to as it “pure Nazi”.

Speaking of controversial worldwide journeys, Kathrin Hille studies that China is pulling out all of the stops — together with presumably the army — to dissuade the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan within the subsequent few days.

Past the doom and gloom, we are able to look ahead to a weekend of revelry. As effectively as International Beer Day on Friday, Brighton’s streets shall be awash with glitter as one of many UK’s greatest Pride occasions kicks off. The annual LGBTQ parade will see hundreds of individuals flocking to the south coast of England. And don’t miss the Fire of Love on the large display screen, writes our movie critic Danny Leigh.

Do get in contact — by electronic mail georgina.quach@ft.com or on Twitter @georgina.quach.

Economic knowledge

The Bank of England shall be in a good(ening) spot on Thursday as its Monetary Policy Committee weighs up how excessive to increase rates of interest in a bid to carry inflation down to its 2 per cent goal. It is at present working at a 40-year excessive of 9.4 per cent and is anticipated to climb increased. Governor Andrew Bailey mentioned a rise of half a proportion level — which might be the largest improve in 27 years — is on the desk.

The BoE is beneath stress to step up inflation-taming efforts after the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark fee by 0.75 proportion factors for the second month in a row on Wednesday. The White House shall be trumpeting any excellent news from US employment figures this week to downplay fears of recession. The financial system shrank for a second straight quarter and “core” private consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.6 per cent in June.

Companies

The August earnings lull isn’t fairly upon us. After final week’s frenzy, issues will chill out solely just a little within the days forward, says FT company commentator Cat Rutter Pooley.

The narrative of shopper items and drinks teams elevating gross sales forecasts on the again of surging inflation has been firmly set forward of Heineken’s outcomes on Monday and Kellogg’s on Thursday.

The windfall income earned by oil and gasoline teams have additionally been a serious focus of the earnings season. After Shell racked up $11.5bn in income in a report quarter, it’s BP’s flip to step into the political storm on Tuesday. The UK has imposed further taxes on power firms this yr however one other spherical of report income might improve calls for added levies.

And whereas the key US banks gave their updates what looks like aeons in the past, studies from the European banking sector are nonetheless trickling by means of. HSBC will replace on whether or not lockdowns in China have continued to weigh on its Asian profitability, whereas Bank of Ireland and Commerzbank each report on Wednesday.

Key financial and firm studies

Here is a extra full listing of what to anticipate by way of firm studies and financial knowledge this week.

Monday

• EU, month-to-month unemployment figures

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing buying managers’ index (PMI) knowledge

• Germany, retail trade figures

• US, development spending figures

• Results: Erste Group Bank HY, GlobalInformation HY, Heineken HY, HSBC HY, Pearson H1, Pinterest Q2

Tuesday

• Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia holds month-to-month rate-setting assembly

• UK, Nationwide month-to-month home value index, and quarterly insolvency figures

• Results: Airbnb Q2, BP Q2, Direct Line Insurance Group HY, Fresnillo HY, Greggs HY, JetBlue Airways Q2, Man Group HY, Mitsubishi Q2, PayPal Q2, Prudential Financial Q2, Starbucks Q3, Uber Technologies Q2

Wednesday

• EU, July retail gross sales figures

• France, Germany, Italy, UK, US: S&P Global companies PMI knowledge

• India, the Reserve Bank of India holds month-to-month rate-setting assembly

• Italy, month-to-month retail gross sales figures

• US, month-to-month employment knowledge

• Results: AXA HY, Bank of Ireland HY, BMW HY, Commerzbank Q2, eBay Q2, Hugo Boss Q2, Infineon Technologies Q3, Just Eat HY, Moderna Q2, Nintendo Q1, Nomura Holdings Q1, Taylor Wimpey HY, Telecom Italia Q2, Veolia HY, Yum Brands Q2

Thursday

• ECB, month-to-month financial bulletin

• Investec holds annual normal assembly

• Tesla holds annual shareholder assembly

• UK, Bank of England’s financial coverage committee rate-setting assembly

• US, June worldwide trade in items and companies figures

• Results: Alibaba Q2, Bayer Q2, ConocoPhillips Q2, Eli Lilly and Co Q2, Kellogg Q2, Lyft Q2, Next Q2 buying and selling replace, Nippon Steel Q1, Novo Nordisk Q2, Paramount Q2, Pirelli Q2, Rolls-Royce HY, Serco Group HY, GentleBank Group Q1, Toyota Q1

Friday

• Canada, July unemployment figures

• UK, Halifax month-to-month home value index

• US, July unemployment and US Federal Reserve shopper credit score figures

• Results: Capita Group HY, Deutsche Postbank Q2, Suzuki Motor Corp Q1

World occasions

Finally, here’s a rundown of different occasions and milestones this week.

Monday

• China, anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army

• Cook Island, parliamentary elections

• Germany, nation has pledged to stop buying Russian coal from in the present day

• Hungary, nation will cease exporting fossil fuels to neighbouring nations from in the present day

• Jamaica, Emancipation Day celebrates the day African slaves in British colonies had been granted freedom from slavery

• Switzerland, National Day public vacation

• UK, St Andrew’s Day financial institution vacation in Scotland. BT and Openreach union members set to strike for twenty-four hours in a dispute over pay. The first strike came about on Friday.

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

• China, Qixi Festival celebrates the annual assembly of the cowherd and weaver lady in Chinese mythology

• US, the four-day Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Texas

Friday

• Japan, anime followers collect for the three-day World Cosplay Summit

• Russia, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will meet Russian premier Vladimir Putin in Sochi

• UK, about 150,000 Conservative party members are due to obtain their ballots by in the present day to start voting for a brand new chief, and therefore the brand new British prime minister. Brighton and Hove Pride pageant weekend begins

Saturday

• Bolivia, Independence Day vacation

• Jamaica, Independence Day

• Japan, 77th annual memorial occasion for Hiroshima atomic bomb victims

Sunday