Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

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August FX Seasonality Overview:

  • The eighth month of the yr usually sees a combined efficiency by the US Dollar.
  • The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc have a tendency to do properly in August, whereas the Australian and New Zealand Dollars fare poorly.
  • August has been a superb month for each gold costs and US shares.

The starting of the month warrants a evaluation of the seasonal patterns which have influenced foreign exchange markets over the previous a number of years. For August, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, each of which seize buying and selling in the course of the winddown of aggressive central financial institution intervention starting with the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the atmosphere we discover ourselves in now.

Nevertheless, as has been the case for the previous 5 months, ongoing ahistorical situations scale back the reliability of utilizing seasonality as a significant worth motion indicator. After all, world commodity markets stay distressed amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and world provide chains are nonetheless coping with China’s zero COVID technique. We should conclude that methods based mostly round seasonality tendencies stay much less viable than in years previous.

Monthly Forex Seasonality Summary – August 2022

Forex Seasonality in Euro (by way of EUR/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August is a combined month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.04%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fifth greatest month of the yr, averaging a achieve of +0.14%.

Forex Seasonality in British Pound (by way of GBP/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August is a bearish month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.46%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the third worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -0.33%.

Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (by way of USD/JPY)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August isa bearish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.59%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -0.19%.

Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (by way of AUD/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August is a bearish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.52%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the third worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -0.85%.

Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (by way of NZD/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August isa bearish month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the second worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -1.65%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the second worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -1.69%.

Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (by way of USD/CAD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August is a combined month for USD/CAD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the sixth greatest month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.08%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the yr, averaging a achieve of +0.11%.

Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (by way of USD/CHF)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August is a bearish month for USD/CHF, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.67%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -0.26%.

Forex Seasonality in US S&P 500

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August isa bullish month for the US S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the sixth greatest month of the yr for the index, averaging a achieve of +2.24%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the yr, averaging a achieve of +0.74%.

Forex Seasonality in Gold (by way of XAU/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality – August 2022: Gold, US Stocks Tend to Outperform

August is a bullish month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the sixth greatest month of the yr for the valuable metallic, averaging a achieve of +1.86%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the second greatest month of the yr, averaging a achieve of +2.02%.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist





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