How My “Dividend Sell Signal” Can Help You Avoid 40%+ Losses


I hear from readers of my Hidden Yields dividend-growth service all of the time–and many are questioning why their “dividend guy” has all of the sudden develop into a “cash guy”!

Truth is, there’s been nothing for us to purchase! We’ve unloaded 17 positions since final October in Hidden Yields and are sitting on an enormous money pile–waiting for our probability.

And that probability is coming. In truth, when you’re utilizing dollar-cost averaging–or investing a set quantity of money on a set date, in different words–to construct your portfolio, now is a superb time to place money towards the most secure shares you own–especially as we get nearer to “stock season”: the interval from November to May, when markets are sometimes stronger.

Yearning for a Return to “Normal” Investing Questions

That’s our short-term play right here. But what about the long term?

The excellent news is that bear markets are at all times shorter than bulls, so time is on our facet. The typical bear market lasts 10 months, and we’re now into month eight, which means November–the begin of the aforementioned stock season–is once we’ll seemingly buy groceries.

Then, with a bit of luck, we’ll be again to judging firms on the fundamentals–not the newest utterances of Jay Powell!

In hopes of that, I wish to get again to a extra “normal” portfolio-management query at the moment: how have you learnt when to promote a dividend grower and take income? Because regardless of this dumpster fireplace of a yr, many of us are sitting on wholesome beneficial properties, even when you purchased as just lately as March 2020:

2022 Mess Masks Big Profits for Many Investors

With that in thoughts, you simply may be questioning whether or not it could be time to unload a few of these positions and lock in your income.

So at the moment I’m going to offer you three indicators I at all times use when making purchase/promote choices for my Hidden Yields. Taken collectively, they offer us a easy technique that lets a too-often-ignored factor–dividend growth–dictate our subsequent strikes.

Buy (and Hang on!) When Dividends Outrun Share Prices

If you are a daily reader of my columns on Contrarian Outlook, what I’m about to say will not shock you: dividend progress is the No. 1 driver of share costs.

The share worth of a stock Hidden Yields members know well–Hormel Foods (HRL) reveals the connection between dividends and share costs as clear as might be:

Hard to Argue These Two Lines Aren’t Related

Here’s the actual trick right here, although: regardless of this sample, once in a while a stock’s share worth lags its payout progress. And when you purchase then, you may give your self an opportunity to journey alongside for some good “snap-back” upside.

This is a cool technique I’ve seen work time and time once more. Drug distributor Amerisource Bergen (ABC), which we mentioned in our article last week, supplies an ideal illustration. ABC has hiked its payout 254% within the final decade, pacing its share worth to an nearly equivalent acquire.

ABC’s Dividend Growth Lifts Its Share Price

See that large hole above, the place the share worth lags the payout over a interval of some years? I watched that intently, and when it obtained ridiculously extensive (partially because of overblown litigation towards the corporate), we pounced. I issued a purchase name on ABC in Hidden Yields on June 19, 2020. As you may see, that was when the hole was close to its widest level.

Right on cue, ABC started to shut its “dividend gap,” delivering us a market-crushing 47% complete return in slightly over two years:

… And Then Bounce Back

I’m certain you see the place I’m going here–and how this technique might be turned on its head to inform us when it is time to promote.

Sell When Share Prices Outrun Payout Growth

Just as a share worth that is behind its payout progress is usually a shopping for alternative, a stock that is too far forward can alert us to an enormous tumble. To see what I imply, contemplate Best Buy (BBY)–and let’s maintain anybody who purchased the stock in late November in our ideas for a second:

BBY Flies Too Close to the Sun

We’ve averted Best Buy in Hidden Yields as a result of regardless of how briskly the corporate boosts its payout–and it has despatched its dividend hovering within the final decade–investors bid the share worth greater, placing the elements for an enormous fall in place.

That’s precisely what occurred when the scenario obtained really ludicrous in late 2021. Anyone who purchased then suffered a sickening 44% loss, even because the payout jumped:

Big Dividend Hike Is Cold Comfort for November BBY Buyers

Which brings us to a different issue we want to remember always when shopping for (and particularly promoting) dividend growers.

Payout Ratios Are Your Window on Dividend (and Share Price) Health

The key sign of whether or not a dividend can maintain growing–and pulling up the share price–is an organization’s payout ratio, which is the proportion of the final 12 months of free money stream (FCF) which have gone to dividends.

(We choose FCF to internet earnings right here as a result of the latter is an accounting determine that may be manipulated, whereas FCF is the quantity of working money stream left after capital expenses–a easy quantity that may’t be fudged.)

I demand a ratio of fifty% or much less for shares I like to recommend in Hidden Yields (although actual property funding trusts can have greater ratios, as these firms pull in predictable rents from tenants).

If you personal a “regular” stock whose payout ratio spikes above that line, particularly effectively above, it is time to promote. And it’s essential promote yesterday in case your FCF payout ratio goes unfavourable (which means the corporate is paying dividends whereas producing unfavourable money stream).

The basic instance is General Electric (GE), a dividend go-to that noticed its payout ratio go unfavourable with the June 2016 payout.

That was the primary signal a payout minimize was coming, but it surely was largely ignored–until GE slashed the dividend in half slightly over a yr later, in December 2017. The transfer triggered an enormous share-price drop from which the stock has but to get better. (The payout has since been sliced once more and now stands at simply eight cents a share.)

GE’s “Dividend Red Alert” Went Unheeded

Today, GE’s FCF payout ratio is a a lot more healthy 17%, however its dividend cuts and share-price drops depart it with a pathetic 0.44% yield, which is not sufficient to get our pulses racing. And with income down by greater than half within the final 10 years–and exhibiting little signal of growth–there’s little hope for extra payout hikes from right here.

URGENT: Buy These 7 Dividend Growers Before the Fed-Driven Recession

Look, you and I each know, deep down, that the Fed will most likely tip us right into a recession with its outsized fee hikes. After all, Powell and Co. have been late on each single shift within the financial system since 2020!

I would like you to be ready–which is why I’ve assembled my 7-stock “Recession-Resistant Portfolio,” and I’m inviting you to take “kick the tires” on this assortment of dependable dividend growers now.

All 7 of those corporations are rising their payouts quick. And all 7 are seeing their shares rise as these dividends proceed to go north.

How will that play out for us? If the market shoots greater, I anticipate these 7 “recession-resistant” performs to do even higher. If shares stumble, these 7 firms’ rising dividends will assist stabilize their share costs. And we’ll gather their surging dividends the entire time!

This is why, it doesn’t matter what occurs, I’m calling for 15% annualized beneficial properties from these 7 stout firms over the lengthy haul.

The time to purchase them is now. Click here and I’ll share my full dividend-growth strategy and give you the opportunity to download a Special Investor Report revealing the names, tickers and my latest research on all 7 of these “recession-resistant” dividend growers.

Don’t miss your probability to purchase these 7 “ironclad” dividends now, whereas they’re nonetheless bargains!

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially mirror these of Nasdaq, Inc.

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