Canadian Dollar Short-term Price Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Faces NFP


Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Short-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar up to date technical trade ranges – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD rebound off downtrend help threatens bigger recovery- key Jobs information on faucet
  • Resistance 1.2938/51, 1.3025, 1.3076 (key)- Support 1.2784, 1.2716 (key), 1.2640

The Canadian Dollar has been on protection towards the US Dollar because the begin of the month with USD/CAD rebounding greater than 0.8% off downtrend help. The focus shifts to this restoration heading into key employment information tomorrow from the US & Canada with a well-defined weekly opening-range now in view forward of the releases. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the USD/CAD technical value charts. Review my newest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and extra.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In final month’s Canadian Dollar Short-term Price Outlook, we famous that USD/CAD had, “plunged into support at the July open / monthly low – looking for inflection here.” The greenback continued to grind decrease into the July shut earlier than rebounding off the June low-week reversal shut / 25% parallel at ~1.2784. The focus is on this early month restoration heading into main occasion threat tomorrow with US Non-Farm Payrolls and Canada employment on faucet.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min - Loonie Short-term Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Notes: A more in-depth have a look at Loonie value motion exhibits USD/CAD buying and selling inside the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the July excessive with value testing the median-line as resistance early within the week. A topside breach would threaten a bigger restoration in the direction of preliminary resistance on the 2021 high-day shut / 2019 low at 1.2939/52 backed by the July 15th reversal shut at 1.3025. Broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the May excessive at 1.3076– a detailed above this threshold could be wanted to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

A break decrease from right here retains the give attention to subsequent help targets on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly vary at 1.2716– look for a bigger response there IF reached with a detailed under wanted to maintain the medium-term short-bias viable in the direction of the target 2022 yearly open at 1.2640.

Bottom line: USD/CAD has rebounded off downtrend help with the restoration now testing the median-line forward of main occasion threat. From at buying and selling standpoint, the main target is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for steering with the menace for a bigger restoration inside the downtrend. Stay nimble early within the month- prone to get some volatility right here. Review my newest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a more in-depth have a look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade ranges.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, overview his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - USDCAD Short-term Technical Outlook

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long USD/CAD – the ratio stands at +1.20 (54.55% of merchants are lengthy) – usually weak bearish studying
  • Long positions are2.73% decrease than yesterday and three.53% increased from final week
  • Short positions are 7.24% increased than yesterday and 5.33% increased from final week
  • We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long suggests USD/CAD costs might proceed to fall. Yet merchants are much less net-long than yesterday and in contrast with final week. From a sentiment standpoint, the current adjustments in positioning warn that the present USD/CAD value development might quickly reverse increased regardless of the very fact merchants stay net-long.

US / Canada Economic Calendar

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Key Data Releases - Loonie Weekly Event Risk - NFP - Canada Employment Data

Economic Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion threat

Active Technical Setups

– Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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