FirstFT: Truss claims UK recession can be averted

Good morning. Liz Truss, the Tory management frontrunner, claimed yesterday that she might avert a recession if she turned prime minister, because the Bank of England warned that Britain confronted a protracted downturn.

The UK international minister, who has promised rapid tax cuts if she wins, stated throughout a Sky News management debate that the BoE’s projected financial hunch, which might final by way of subsequent yr, might but be averted.

“We can change the outcome and make it more likely the economy grows” — Liz Truss

Truss promised to reverse plans by her rival Rishi Sunak, the previous chancellor, to extend company tax from 19 per cent to 25 per cent, whereas scrapping inexperienced levies on power payments and a nationwide insurance coverage rise.

Sunak is trailing Truss in all celebration member opinion polls, with some pointing to a lead of 30 factors or extra. But after the Sky News debate, the viewers, in a present of fingers, considerably favoured Sunak.

The televised debate got here the identical day that the central financial institution raised rates of interest sharply by 0.5 proportion factors to 1.75 per cent and forecast inflation would hit 13 per cent by the top of the yr.

The BoE’s gloomy view of the rapid financial outlook got here as a shock to analysts, who imagine it desires to unleash a pointy downturn to curb surging inflation.

• Opinion: To stamp her authority in workplace, Truss ought to appoint a cupboard that represents the total spectrum of Tory views, writes Sebastian Payne.

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Five extra tales within the information

1. Ukraine requires extensions to Black Sea grain deal Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s trade negotiator and deputy financial system minister, has known as for the deal that relaxes Russia’s blockade on grain exports to be prolonged to different merchandise reminiscent of metals after the primary profitable use of the route.

2. Coinbase forges BlackRock deal over crypto entry Coinbase has introduced a cope with BlackRock that can give the asset supervisor’s shoppers extra seamless entry to digital asset markets, within the newest signal of conventional buyers dabbling in cryptocurrencies.

3. Visa and Mastercard lower ties with Pornhub proprietor’s advert arm The fee networks will cease working with the promoting arm of MindGeek, the proprietor of Pornhub, after a courtroom ruling discovered that Visa might be held chargeable for unlawful content material on the user-generated pornography web site.

4. Russian courtroom sentences Brittney Griner to 9 years in jail Prosecutors have sentenced the US basketball participant to 9 years in jail on fees of drug smuggling, elevating the stakes of a proposed prisoner swap that might embody Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout.

5. Wildfires devour virtually all forest carbon offsets in 100-year reserve As a results of fires, six forest initiatives in California’s carbon buying and selling system have launched between 5.7mn and 6.8mn tonnes of carbon since 2015, based on a non-profit analysis group, depleting at least 95 per cent of all carbon credits put aside in reserve by forestry initiatives within the US.

The day forward

Erdoğan meets Putin Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin within the Black Sea resort of Sochi to debate military co-operation. (Yahoo)

Economic knowledge In the UK, the Halifax month-to-month home value index is due. Analysts anticipate US job growth in July to have continued at a powerful tempo, however slower than in June. The Federal Reserve publishes shopper credit score figures. (FT, WSJ)

Celebrations As effectively as International Beer Day, Brighton’s streets will be awash with glitter as one of many UK’s largest Pride occasions start immediately. The annual LGBT+ parade will see 1000’s flock to the south coast.

What else we’re studying

Europe and Asia battle to safe gasoline provides The race to lock in liquefied pure gasoline provides for winter is elevating the dangers of an extra value surge, including gasoline to the price of dwelling disaster. Competition has intensified as Europe seeks to switch pure gasoline from Russia, growing strain on international locations reminiscent of Japan and South Korea, the world’s second and third-biggest importers of LNG.

Britain’s anxious era Across the nation, schoolchildren this yr are most likely essentially the most fragile, inadequately ready and sad group ever to gather A-level outcomes. Lucy Kellaway explains why, and what faculties are doing to sort out a looming psychological well being disaster.

In 50 years, will anybody stay in central Spain? You would assume local weather change would be the highest precedence in a scorching dry nation, however the truth is, Spaniards spend extra time arguing about nationwide unity, following the trauma of Catalonia’s unlawful independence referendum in 2017. Simon Kuper writes that world warming is threatening the world’s most habitable nation.

Ukrainian refugees counting on the kindness of strangers More than 6mn individuals have fled since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Hundreds have shared their tales with the Financial Times of the nervousness of fleeing a conflict zone, the issue of adjusting to unfamiliar international locations and their hopes for the long run. Hardship, heartache and uncertainty had been constants, however so too had been acts of kindness.

Market rally delivers exhausting classes Oh, poor fund managers. Why the lengthy faces? July was the most effective months of all time. But it won’t be the rebound we’ve all been ready for. Too a lot money has been tied up in a secure hidey gap and too little deployed on the upswing, writes Katie Martin.

Books

Acclaimed Pakistani-born novelist Mohsin Hamid lives in an imaginary homeland, one which he makes an attempt to grasp in books. He speaks with the FT on placelessness, “the art of politically engaged art” and his new guide The Last White Man.