Gold Rally Halted by NFP


Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold costs surged practically 6.7% off the yearly lows with a rebound off assist faltering at downtrend resistance on the heels of a blow-out US Non-Farm Payroll launch at the moment. The battle-lines have been drawn and the main focus is on a breakout of the preliminary August opening-range within the days forward. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts. Review my newest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and extra.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my final Gold Price Outlook we famous that XAU/USD had, “rebounded off confluent downtrend support with major event risk on tap into the close of the week / month. From at trading standpoint, look for downside exhaustion ahead of the yearly low-close at 1696 IF price is heading higher on this recovery with a breach above the weekly range highs needed to fuel the push.” Gold registered a low at 1711 the next day earlier than mounting an outside-daily reversal greater with the worth rallying greater than 4.8% into the August open. That rally is now approaching yearly downtrend resistance and we’re searching for doable value inflection up right here for steering within the days forward.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Short-term Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A better take a look at Gold value motion reveals XAU/USD buying and selling throughout the confines of an embedded ascending median-line formation extending off the July lows. Price is testing the yearly downtrend here- a topside breach would maintain the deal with resistance on the 1818/27Fibonacci confluence– a each day shut above this threshold could be wanted to counsel a extra vital low is in / validate a bigger medium-term development reversal in the direction of 1877/75. Initial assist now rests at 1753 with a break beneath the August low-day shut at 1729 wanted to mark resumption of the broader downtrend in the direction of the median-line (~1700) and key assist on the May / June 2020 lows at 1671/82.

Bottom line: The gold value rebound off downtrend assist is now testing downtrend resistance- searching for a response up right here within the days forward of steering. From at buying and selling standpoint, zone to cut back parts of long-exposure / elevate protecting stops – losses ought to be restricted to 1729 IF value is certainly heading greater on this stretch with an in depth above 1827 wanted to clear the way in which. Review my newest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a more in-depth take a look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical buying and selling ranges.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluate his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - GC Short-term Technical Outlook

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment reveals merchants are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.39 (77.22% of merchants are lengthy) – sometimes bearishstudying
  • Long positions are4.24% decrease than yesterday and 16.43% decrease from final week
  • Short positions are22.74% greater than yesterday and 52.69% greater from final week
  • We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long suggests Gold costs could proceed to fall. Yet merchants are much less net-long than yesterday and in contrast with final week. From a sentiment standpoint the latest adjustments in positioning warn that the present Gold value development could quickly reverse greater regardless of the very fact merchants stay net-long.

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– Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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