EUR/USD Signs of Exhaustion into August Open


Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro up to date technical trade ranges & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD restoration off downtrends help in focus- risk for topside exhaustion forward
  • Weekly help 1.0086, 1.0000/24 (key), 9902; resistance 1.0316/40, 1.0541, 1.0637 (important)

Euro is on protection into the August open with EUR/USD making an attempt to snap a two-week successful streak. A rebound off downtrend help final month is in focus and whereas additional upside potential stays, we’re looking out for doable topside exhaustion within the weeks forward. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the EUR/USD weekly value chart. Review my newest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and extra.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In final month’s Euro Weekly Price Forecast famous that the EUR/USD had, “rebounded off confluent downtrend support- the threat remains for some recovery within the broader decline.” Price has rallied greater than 3.4% off the lows with the advance stalling into the beginning of the month- the risk is for doable topside exhaustion on this restoration inside the broader multi-year downtrend.

Initial weekly resistance eyed on the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 vary / 2017 swing low at 1.0316/40 backed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0541– each ranges of curiosity for doable topside exhaustion / value inflection IF reached. Ultimately a breach / shut above the 2020 low at 1.0637 could be wanted to counsel a bigger reversal is underway (bearish invalidation). Initial weekly help rests with the low-week shut at 1.0086 backed by 1.0000/24– a break / weekly shut beneath this threshold is required to mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a situation exposing a important trendline confluence across the 78.6% retracement of the 2000 rally at 9900– look for a bigger response in value there IF reached.

Bottom line: The Euro restoration off downtrend help stays in focus with the risk of a bigger correction early within the month- we’re looking out for a medium-term excessive. From a buying and selling standpoint, look to cut back long-exposure / increase protecting stops on a push in the direction of the downtrend resistance – losses (weekly closes) must be restricted to 1.0086 on pullbacks IF value is certainly heading increased on this stretch. Ultimately, we’re on the lookout for resumption of the broader downtrend within the weeks forward. A Review my newest Euro Short-term Price Outlook for a more in-depth take a look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade ranges.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, overview his Foundations of Technical Analysis collection on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Retail Positioning - EURUSD Technical Forecast

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long EUR/USD – the ratio stands at +1.60 (61.55% of merchants are lengthy) – usually a bearish studying
  • Long positions are10.53% increased than yesterday and 4.51% decrease from final week
  • Short positions are7.50% decrease than yesterday and a couple of.06% decrease from final week
  • We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests EUR/USD costs might proceed to fall. Traders are extra net-long than yesterday however much less net-long from final week. The mixture of present positioning and up to date adjustments offers us an additional blended EUR/USD buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Eurozone / US Economic Calendar

Eurozone / US Economic Calendar - Euro Key Data Releases - EUR/USD Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion threat.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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