Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Breakout Imminent


Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar up to date technical trade ranges – Weekly Chart
  • USD/CAD carves August opening-range just under resistance- breakout pending
  • Support 1.2784, 1.2716, 1.2640 (crucial) – Resistance 1.2975-1.3023 (key), 1.3230, 1.3370

The Canadian Dollar offensive towards the US Dollar resumed this week with USD/CAD plummeting greater than 0.6% into the weekly open. The transfer retains value inside a well-defined month-to-month opening-range and whereas we remained poised for the breakout, the technical risk stays for a take a look at of uptrend assist earlier than resumption of the broader US Dollar rally. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical value chart. Review my newest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and extra.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In final month’s Canadian Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast we famous that USD/CAD was, “testing a key resistance pivot for third time here and once again the immediate long-bias may be vulnerable while below.” Price turned from key resistance at 1.2975-1.3023 that week with the decline marking an outside-weekly reversal final week off assist on the June low-week shut at 1.2784. The instant focus is on a breakout of the August opening-range for steerage with the risk remaining for a deeper correction throughout the broader uptrend.

A break decrease from right here would expose key support goals on the 52-week shifting common / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly vary at 1.2709/16 and the decrease parallel / goal yearly open at ~1.2640– each ranges of curiosity for potential draw back exhaustion / value inflection IF reached. Critical resistance stays on the median-line the place the goal 2020 yearly open converges on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 decline round 1.2975-1.3023– a breach / weekly shut above this threshold is required to mark resumption of the broader uptrend in direction of 1.3230.

Bottom line: USD/CAD has carved a well-defined month-to-month opening-range between key technical ranges and we’re searching for the breakout. From at buying and selling standpoint, the main target is on 1.2784-1.3023 for medium-term steerage – finally a broader pullback could provide extra favorable alternatives nearer to assist with a breach /shut above the median-line wanted to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Review my newest Canadian Dollar Shor-term Price Outlook for a more in-depth take a look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade ranges.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluate his Foundations of Technical Analysis collection on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - USDCAD Technical Forecast

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment reveals merchants are net-long USD/CAD – the ratio stands at +1.66 (62.42% of merchants are lengthy) – usually bearish studying
  • Long positions are21.41% increased than yesterday and eight.39% increased from final week
  • Short positions are 17.65% decrease than yesterday and 22.87% decrease from final week
  • We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long suggests USD/CAD costs could proceed to fall. Traders are additional net-long than yesterday and final week, and the mix of present positioning and up to date adjustments provides us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

US / Canada Economic Calendar

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Weekly Event Risk - Loonie Data Releases - US Inflation

Economic Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion threat.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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