US Stock Indices Technical Forecast: Weekly Trade Levels
- SPX500 help ~4100, 3906, 3734- resistance 4352/68, 4545, 4677
- Nasdaq help 12668, 12208, 11119- resistance 13165/225, 14261/576, 14861
- Dow help at 29794, 28323, 27583/919- resistance 31392, 32272/375, 33271
Stocks have been on a tear with all three main US equity indices poised to shut out a fourth consecutive weekly advance. While additional upside potential stays, the rallies are actually approaching key areas of technical resistance that can decide whether or not the latest features are a easy bear-market restoration or the begin of a bigger development reversal. The battle traces are drawn heading into the shut of the week. These are the targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) weekly technical charts. Review my newest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these technical stock setups and far more.
S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; SPX500 on Tradingview
Technical Outlook:In final month’s S&P500 Weekly Technical Outlook we famous that, “The immediate focus is on a breakout of the monthly range with the threat for a larger bear market recovery in the medium-term.” The SPX500 has now rallied greater than 17% off the lows with the four-week advance trying to breach resistance at the 2021 May excessive / low week shut at 4179. Watch the weekly shut right here.
A extra important resistance zone is eyed simply larger at 4352/68– a area outlined by the 52-week transferring common and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly vary. Note that this threshold converges on yearly downtrend resistance and a breach / shut above can be wanted to validate a breakout / mark a bigger development reversal. Look for preliminary weekly help close to the month-to-month opening-range lows round ~4100 with a break / shut again beneath 3906 wanted to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.
Bottom line: The S&P 500 vary breakout is extending in direction of key technical resistance simply higher- danger for value inflection / topside exhaustion forward. From a buying and selling standpoint, look to cut back parts of long-exposure / elevate protecting stops on a stretch in direction of 4352/68 – look for bigger response in value there for steerage IF reached. Review my newest S&P 500 Short-term Technical Outlook for a better take a look at the near-term SPX500 technical trade ranges.
S&P 500 Trader Sentiment – SPX500 Price Chart
- A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-short the S&P 500- the ratio stands at -1.75 (36.31% of merchants are lengthy) – usually a bullishstudying
- Long positions are4.13% larger than yesterday and 1.11% decrease from final week
- Short positions are2.05% decrease than yesterday and three.58% larger from final week
- We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the reality merchants are net-short suggests US 500 costs could proceed to rise. Yet, merchants are much less net-short than yesterday however extra net-short from final week. From a sentiment standpoint, the mixture of present positioning and up to date modifications provides us an additional combined US 500 buying and selling bias.
Nasdaq 100 Price Chart – NDX Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NDX on Tradingview
Notes: Nasdaq ripped by means of preliminary downtrend resistance three-weeks in the past with a formidable 22.8% rally off the lows now probing confluent resistance at 13165/225– a area outlined by the 1.618% extension of the June advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2021 decline. Note that fundamental trendline resistance off the December highs additionally converges on this threshold and additional highlights its technical significance – trying for a response up right here.
A topside breach / shut above would expose a bigger advance in direction of the 52-week transferring common a t 14261 backed by the March low-week shut / 61.8% retracement at 14420/576 – each zones of curiosity for attainable value inflection / topside exhaustion IF reached. Initial support rests with the 2021 low-week shut at 12668 with a break / shut beneath the 2021 low at 12208 wanted to place the bears again in management.
Bottom line: Nasdaq is testing large resistance right here and the focus is on the weekly shut. From a buying and selling standpoint, a great zone to cut back long-exposure / elevate protecting stops – losses needs to be restricted to 12208 IF value is heading larger on this stretch. Review my newest Nasdaq Short-term Technical Outlook for a better take a look at the near-term NDX technical trade ranges.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Chart – US30 Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; US30 on Tradingview
Notes: The Dow Jones rallied greater than 13.4% off the lows with the breakout now approaching crucial technical resistance simply larger at 33754-34164 – a area outlined by the 1.618% extension of the June advance, the November lows, the April high-week shut and the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 yearly vary. Risk for attainable value inflection / topside exhaustion there IF reached.
Initial weekly help now rests with the February lows at 32272 backed by 31392 (bullish invalidation). A topside breach / shut above this key zone would basically shift the technical image with such a state of affairs exposing the April highs at 35492 backed by the yearly high-day shut at 36231.
Bottom Line: The Dow is approaching a significant technical resistance confluence – danger for value inflection / topside exhaustion. From a buying and selling standpoint, a glance for cut back long-exposure / elevate protecting stops on stretch in direction of 33754-34164 IF reached – losses needs to be restricted to 31392 to maintain the upside bias viable in the weeks forward. I’ll publish an up to date Dow Jones Short-term Technical Outlook as soon as we get additional readability on the near-term NDX technical trade ranges.
For a whole breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluation his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy
Active Weekly Technical Setups
-Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex