Greenback Remains Firm | Seeking Alpha




After retreating most of final week, the US greenback has prolonged yesterday’s features at present. The Canadian greenback is probably the most resilient, whereas the New Zealand greenback is main the decline with an almost 0.75% drop forward of the central financial institution determination very first thing tomorrow. The RBNZ is predicted to ship its fourth consecutive 50 bp hike. Most rising market currencies are decrease as properly, led by central Europe. Equities in Asia Pacific and Europe are principally greater at present. Japan and Hong Kong have been exceptions, and China was blended with small features in Shanghai and Shenzhen composites, however the CSI 300 slipped. Europe’s STOXX 600 is stretching its advance for the fifth consecutive session. It is at two-month highs. US futures are softer. The US 10-year yield is barely firmer close to 2.80%, whereas European benchmark yields are principally 2-4 bp greater, however Italian bonds are underneath extra strain and the yield is again above the three% threshold. Gold is softer after being repulsed from the $1800 space to check $1773-$1775. A break might sign a check on the 20-day transferring common close to $1761. October WTI examined final week’s lows yesterday close to $86 a barrel on the again of the poor Chinese information. It is straddling the 200-day transferring common (~$87.95). The market can also be watching what looks like the ultimate negotiations with Iran, the place a deal might additionally increase provide. US natgas costs are greater than recouping the previous two days of losses and look set to problem the $9 degree. Europe’s benchmark leapt 11.7% yesterday and is up one other 0.5% at present. Iron ore has but to discover a base after falling greater than 5.5% up to now two periods. It fell nearly 0.65% at present. September copper has fallen by nearly 2.5% over the previous two periods and is regular at present. Lastly, September wheat is slipping again beneath $8 a bushel and is buying and selling closely for the third consecutive session.

Asia Pacific

Japan’s 2.2% annualized development in Q2 doesn’t stand in the best way of a brand new authorities assist bundle. Prime Minister Kishida has been reportedly planning new measures and has instructed the cupboard to tug it collectively by early subsequent month. He desires to cushion the blow of upper power and meals costs. An extension of the subsidy to wholesalers to maintain down the gasoline and kerosene costs appears seemingly. Kishida desires to go off a surge in wheat costs. Without a dedication to keep up present import costs of wheat that’s bought to millers, the worth might soar 20% in October, in accordance with studies. Separately, and extra controversially, Kishida is pushing for the re-opening of 9 nuclear crops which have handed their security protocols, which have been shut because the 2011 Fukushima accident.

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s assembly earlier this month signaled further fee hikes shall be forthcoming. After three half-point hikes, it says that the tempo going ahead shall be decided by inflation expectations and the evolving financial circumstances. The minutes famous that shopper spending is a component of uncertainty given the upper inflation and rates of interest. Earlier at present, the CBA’s family spending report exhibits a 1.1% soar month-over-month in July and a 0.6% improve in June. The RBA desires to carry the money goal fee to impartial (~2.50%). The goal fee is presently at 1.85% and the money fee futures is pricing in a couple of 40% probability of a 50 bp hike on the subsequent RBA assembly on September 6. It peaked close to 60% final week. On Thursday, Australia studies July employment. Australia grew 88.4k jobs in June, of which just about 53k have been full-time positions. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey envisions a 25k improve of jobs in July.

The offshore yuan slumped 1.15% yesterday. It was the largest drop since August 2019 and was sparked by the sudden reduce in charges after a collection of disappointing financial information. The US greenback reached nearly CNH6.82 yesterday, its highest degree in three months. It has steadied at present however stays agency within the CNH6.7925-CNH6.8190 vary. China’s 10-year yield continues to be underneath strain. It completed final week quietly close to 2.74% and yesterday fell to 2.66% and at present 2.63%. It is the bottom since May 2020.

As we now have famous, the dollar-yen trade fee appears to be extra delicate to the US 2-year yield (extra anchored to Fed coverage) than the 10-year yield (extra about development and inflation). The greenback is buying and selling close to four-day highs in opposition to the yen because the two-year yield trades firmer close to 3.20%. Initial resistance has been encountered in Europe close to JPY134.00. Above there, the JPY134.60 could supply the following cap. Support now’s seen round JPY133.20-40. The Australian greenback prolonged yesterday’s decline and slipped by means of the $0.7000 degree the place A$440 mln in choices expire at present. It additionally corresponds with a (50%) retracement of the run-up kind the mid-July low (~$0.6680). The subsequent space of assist is seen within the $0.6970-80 space. The buck rose 0.45% in opposition to the onshore yuan yesterday after gapping greater. Today it gapped greater once more and rose to nearly CNY6.7975, its highest degree since mid-May. It reached a excessive then close to CNY6.8125. The PBOC set the greenback’s reference fee at CNY6.7730, barely lower than the median in Bloomberg’s survey (CNY6.7736). The takeaway is the central financial institution didn’t appear to protest the weak point of the yuan.


The euro has been bought to a brand new seven-year low in opposition to the Swiss franc close to CHF0.9600. The euro has been bought in eight of the 9 weeks because the Swiss National Bank hiked its coverage fee by 50 bp on June 16. Half of these weekly declines have been 1% or bigger. The euro has fallen round 7.4% in opposition to the franc because the hike. Swiss home sight deposit fell for 10 of 11 weeks by means of the top of July, because the SNB didn’t seem like intervening. However, within the final two weeks, because the franc continued to strengthen, the Swiss sight deposits have risen, and recorded their first back-to-back improve in 4 months. This is in keeping with modest intervention.

The UK added 160k jobs in Q2, nearly half of the roles gained within the three months by means of May, illustrating the fading momentum. Still, some 73k have been added to the payrolls in July, properly above expectations. In the three months by means of July, job vacancies within the UK fell (~19.8k) for the primary time in almost two years. Average weekly earnings, together with bonuses, rose 5.1% in Q2. The median forecast was for a 4.5% improve. Yet, actual pay, excluding bonuses and adjusted for inflation, slid 3% within the April-June interval, probably the most since not less than 2001. The ILO measure of unemployment in Q2 was unchanged at 3.8%. The Bank of England warns it can rise to over 6%. The market nonetheless favors a 50 bp hike subsequent month. The swaps market has it at a bit of higher than an 80% likelihood.

The euro is extending its retreat. It peaked final week, close to $1.0365, and examined this month’s low close to $1.0125 within the European morning. The intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and that market doesn’t seem to have the drive to problem the 1.2 bln euros in choices struck at $1.0075 that expire at present. With yesterday’s loss, the euro met the (50%) retracement goal of the bounce off the mid-July 22-year low (~$0.9950). The subsequent retracement goal (61.8%) is close to $1.0110. Nearby resistance could also be met close to $1.0160-70. Sterling has been bought for the fourth consecutive session. It approached the $1.20 degree, which stands out as the neckline of a double prime. If violated, it might sign a return to the low seen in mid-July round $1.1760. Sterling is holding in higher than the euro now. The cross peaked earlier than the weekend in entrance of GBP0.8500 and is approaching GBP0.8400 at present. A break would look ominous and will spur a return to the GBP0.8340 space.


The Empire State manufacturing survey and the manufacturing PMI line up properly. Both bottomed in April 2020 and peaked in July 2021. The outsized decline within the August Empire State survey factors to the draw back dangers of subsequent week’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI. Recall that the July manufacturing PMI fell to 52.2, its third consecutive decline and the bottom studying since July 2020. There was little good within the Empire survey. Orders and shipments fell dramatically. Employment was additionally delicate. Prices paid softened to the bottom this yr, however costs obtained edged greater.

The US studies housing begins and permits and industrial output at present. The housing market continues to sluggish from elevated ranges. Housing begins are anticipated to have fallen 2% in July, matching the June decline. It could be the third consecutive decline, and the longest declining streak since 2018. Still, by way of absolutely the degree of exercise, something above 1.5 mln models should nonetheless be thought to be robust. They stood at nearly 1.56 mln in June. Permits fell by 10% in April-May earlier than stabilizing in June. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey tasks a 3.3% decline. Permits have been working at 1.685 mln in June. From April 2007 by means of September 2019, permits held beneath 1.5 mln.

The industrial manufacturing report could appeal to extra consideration. Output fell in June (-0.2%) for the primary time this yr, and even with it, industrial manufacturing has risen on common by 0.4% a month in H1 22, barely above the tempo seen in H1 21. Helped by manufacturing and utility output, industrial manufacturing is predicted to rise by round 0.3%. In the final cycle, capability use spent 4 months (August-November 2018) above 80%. It had not been above 80% because the run-up to the Great Financial Crisis, when it spent December 2006 by means of March 2008 above the brink and peaked barely above 81.0%. Last month was seemingly the fourth month on this cycle above the 80% capability use fee. Note that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shall be up to date later at present. The replace from August 10 put Q3 GDP at 2.5%.

Housing begins in Canada seemingly slowed final month, which might be the primary back-to-back decline this yr. The median forecast (Bloomberg’s survey) requires a 3.6% decline after an 8.4% fall in June. Still, the anticipated tempo of 264k continues to be 10% greater because the finish of final yr. On Monday, Canada reported that July present residence gross sales fell by 5.3%, the fifth consecutive decline. They have fallen by greater than a 3rd since February. Canada additionally studies its month-to-month portfolios. Through May, Canada has skilled C$98.5 bln web portfolio inflows, nearly double the tempo seen within the first 5 months final yr. However, an important report at present is the July CPI. A 0.1% improve, which is the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey, could be the smallest of the yr, and the year-over-year tempo eased to 7.6% from 8.1%. If so, will probably be the primary decline since June 2021. Similar to what the US reported, the core measures are more likely to show sticky. After the employment information on August 5, the swaps market was nonetheless leaning in favor of a 75 bp hike on the September 7 assembly (64%). However, because the US CPI report, it has been hovering round a 40% probability.

While the US S&P 500 reached nearly four-month highs yesterday, the Canadian greenback discovered little comfort. It held in higher than the opposite greenback bloc currencies and Scandis, but it surely nonetheless suffered its largest decline in a couple of month yesterday. The buck reached nearly CAD1.2935 yesterday and is consolidating in a slender vary at present above CAD1.2890. The subsequent necessary chart level is close to CAD1.2975-85 and CAD1.3050. After testing the MXN20.00 degree yesterday, the US greenback was bought marginally by means of final week’s low (~MXN19.8150). It is consolidating at present and has not been above MXN19.8850. It has come a good distance from the month’s excessive set on August 3 close to MXN20.8335. The buck’s draw back momentum appears to have eased because it stalls in entrance of MXN19.81 for the third consecutive session.

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Editor’s Note: The abstract bullets for this text have been chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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