Nucor Is Set For Its Best Year (NYSE:NUE)


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Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) is North America’s largest and most diversified metal and metal merchandise firm. It can be probably the most worthwhile companies within the primary supplies sector. According to New Constructs, the firm, together with Dow Inc. (DOW), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and Linde plc (LIN), are chargeable for 53% of the sector’s core earnings. The firm has constructed a inexperienced enterprise with an unbelievable historical past of profitability, and 49 straight years of dividend will increase. Nevertheless, the corporate is buying and selling at very engaging ranges, because the market appears decided to disregard the favorable financial circumstances surrounding the corporate.

Nucor’s Business

Nucor operates 25-scrap-based metal mills that generate 28 million tons of metal a yr. The metal mills phase is the corporate’s largest, making up 66% of income. Recycling scrap steel enjoys huge benefits over conventional metal makers. Steel, an iron alloy, is produced from a mix of metals and non-metals comparable to carbon, iron and tin. Since the Nineteen Seventies, greater than 60% of metal within the United States has been recycled. Most metals may be recycled repeatedly with out dropping any of their properties.

The firm additionally produces a extremely diversified portfolio of 6 million tons a yr of metal merchandise, and sells some uncooked supplies as effectively.

In the corporate’s 2021 annual report, CEO Leon J. Topalian, referred to the robust demand that drove Nucor’s distinctive outcomes that yr. In 2022, outcomes are prone to be stronger, given rising inflation. Indeed, a side-effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions between the West and China, is that the West can be compelled to shift its sources of provide to friendlier international locations. I anticipate extra demand for American metal from the European Union on account of the necessity to divest from doubtlessly adversarial companions. The mixture of inflation and geopolitically pushed supply-chain modifications, will drive costs up.

Green Steel

Recycling has an apparent optimistic profit for the surroundings, which ought to curiosity ESG buyers who wish to encourage environmentally sound practices. Remember: apart energy technology, the iron and metal trade are probably the most polluting industries on this planet, contributing 7% to 9% of world emissions. The trade has struggled to develop “green steel,” due to the hurt that conventional metal manufacturing does to the surroundings.

Nucor is acknowledged as being one of many cleanest steelmakers in the world, one thing which may be stated of the U.S. metal trade as a complete.

Nucor Has Been Staggeringly Profitable

In the final decade, Nucor has grown income from $19.43 billion in 2012, to almost $36.5 billion in 2021, compounding at 6.51% per yr.

The firm has additionally grown its profitability, with web earnings rising from practically $505 million in 2012, to $6.83 billion in 2021, compounding at 29.75% a yr. 2021 was probably the most worthwhile yr within the firm’s historical past, beating the 2018 high-water mark of $2.18 billion.

Recycling metal may be very cost-effective as a result of recyclers don’t have to incur the huge capital outlay wanted to provide metal, both as a direct product or as by-product. The results of this low, variable price base, and Nucor’s money technology, is that recyclers are capable of take pleasure in excessive returns on invested capital (ROIC), which aren’t usually loved by companies within the metals and mining sector. Between 2017 and 2021, Nucor earned a 5-year ROIC of 17%. ROIC for the two,000 largest firms within the United States was 6.9% in 2021.

Nucor has grown free money stream (FCF) from over $303 million in 2012 to greater than $4.6 billion in 2021, at a compound annual development charge (CAGR) of 31.3%.

Nucor’s Shareholder-Friendly Capital Allocation Strategy

The firm’s monetary efficiency is testimony to its capability to allocate capital to value-adding alternatives. The firm has been capable of pursue these alternatives with out turning into excessively indebted. In 2021, the corporate had a web debt to whole capital ratio of 0.14. Current liquidity in 2021 was $4.3 billion and Nucor has an undrawn $1,75 billion credit score facility which matures in 2026. In reality, Nucor has the best credit standing within the North American metal sector, with a ranking of Baa1/A-.

In the final three years, Nucor distributed $1.47 billion in dividends, which represents 13% of working money flows. The firm is dedicated to returning 40% or extra of its web earnings to its shareholders within the type of dividends and share repurchases. In the final three years, the corporate has averaged 58% of web earnings. In 2021, the corporate returned $3.8 billion in money to its shareholders, which represents 55% of that yr’s web earnings. Over 49 years, Nucor has continually elevated its dividend payout.

The firm’s shareholder-friendly insurance policies seem in much more favorable mild if you zoom out. Over the final decade, the corporate has had a 10-year common payout ratio of 72%, and returned $9.4 billion to its shareholders.


With FCF for the trailing twelve months (TTM) of $7.2 billion, and an enterprise worth of $42.27 billion, Nucor has a FCF yield of 17%. This may be very engaging, particularly within the mild of the 1.6% FCF yield for the two,000 largest firms within the United States. This reveals that the corporate’s rising FCF is accessible at a really engaging value, and means that the corporate’s underlying and stock efficiency is prone to be very optimistic going ahead.

Nucor has a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.46, in comparison with a 5-year common of 13.68. The firm is much more undervalued when you think about that, based on information from Aswath Damodaran, the metals and mining sector has a P/E ratio of 48.19. The firm can be deeply undervalued by way of the S&P 500, which has a a number of of 21.75.


Nucor has an admirable enterprise mannequin that may enchantment to ESG buyers. In 2021, the corporate had its greatest ever yr. Given present financial circumstances, the corporate’s profitability is prone to exceed that of 2022. Yet, regardless of an unbelievable historical past of profitability, and a positive financial surroundings, Nucor is buying and selling at a low degree in comparison with its 5-year common, its friends and the broad market. The firm has proven a capability to develop its FCF at a really excessive clip over the past decade. Those quick rising free money flows are buying and selling at a really engaging charge, in comparison with the two,000 largest firms on this planet.

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