Surging Energy Prices Pushing Europe Closer To Recession




The poor eurozone PMI underscores seemingly recession and weighs on the one currency, which was offered to a brand new 20-year low. Rather than a “Turnaround Tuesday” a broadly consolidative session is unfolding. Asian and European equities are weaker, whereas US futures are optimistic however little modified. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are largely firmer and the premium supplied by Europe’s periphery is edging greater. The US 10-year is little modified close to 3.02%. Most non-European main currencies are firmer, aside from the Australian greenback. The euro struggles to maintain even essentially the most modest of upticks. Emerging market currencies are largely decrease. The Mexican peso is a notable exception. It is the strongest within the EM house at this time, adopted by the Indonesian rupiah, the place the central financial institution hiked its key charge by 25 bp. Gold’s early positive factors are being reversed, however it’s inside yesterday’s vary. October WTI has prolonged yesterday’s restoration, sparked by Saudi Arabia’s risk to chop output. US natgas is greater for the third session and is up almost 8% on this run. Europe’s natgas benchmark is about 2% decrease after yesterday’s 12.3% spike. Iron ore is up a second day, whereas September copper has recouped yesterday’s minor (~0.35%) loss. September wheat is advancing for a 3rd session for a cumulative acquire of seven%.

Asia Pacific

Japan’s restoration is faltering, and the federal government is already cobbling collectively a supplemental spending invoice. While the preliminary manufacturing PMI reveals a slowing growth (51 vs. 52.1), the service PMI is contracting (49.2 vs. 50.3) for the primary time since March. The composite was dragged decrease, and the 48.9 studying (from 50.2) is according to a contraction in output.

Australia’s preliminary August PMI was much like Japan’s. Slower manufacturing output (54.5 from 55.7), whereas the service sector contracted (49.6 from 50.9). The composite slipped beneath the 50 growth/bust stage to 49.8 from 51.1. It is the fourth consecutive decline within the composite and the primary sub-50 studying since January. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 6. The futures market will not be satisfied that the poor PMI stands in the way in which of one other 50 bp hike. In reality, the money charge futures present the best likelihood (70%) of a half-point transfer this month, up from about 62.5% yesterday.

The greenback firmed to marginal new excessive for the month in opposition to the yen at this time close to JPY137.70. Yesterday’s excessive was about JPY137.65. Today’s session, to this point, has been one in every of consolidation. Initial help is seen round JPY137.00. Only a detailed beneath JPY136.70 would problem the bullish greenback posture. Yesterday’s Australian greenback bounce the place it took out the pre-weekend excessive, ostensibly on the China’s charge cuts, was a bull lure. It dropped nearly 1% to almost $0.6860 earlier than discovering help. It traded greater, even after the poor PMI, and met sellers at $0.6900, who drove it to a marginal new low (~$0.6855) since July 19. In uneven buying and selling, it’s firmer in Europe. A transfer above $0.6900 could be useful, however a push above $0.6930 would assist carry the technical tone. Meanwhile, the yuan’s adjustment decrease continued and the Chinese currency fell to new two-year lows in opposition to the greenback. The dollar reached CNY6.8660 earlier than pulling again, and is hovering round little modified ranges round CNY6.8485 close to noon in Europe. The PBOC’s greenback repair confirmed no signal of a protest. It was set at CNY6.8523, slightly above the Bloomberg survey median of CNY6.8511.


The flash EMU PMI was poor. The manufacturing sector was additionally unchanged at 49.7 (from 49.8), whereas the service sector is barely increasing (50.2 vs. 51.2). The composite confirmed output falling additional (49.2 vs. 49.9). It is the bottom the composite has been since early final 12 months. All three measures in Germany remained beneath 50, although the manufacturing sector rather less so (49.8 vs 49.3). While the German composite had fallen beneath 50 in July (and sank additional in August, 47.6 vs. 48.1), the French composite slipped beneath 50 (49.8) for the primary time since February 2021.

The UK flash PMI was softer however combined. The manufacturing PMI sank to 46.0 from 52.1, effectively beneath expectations, and the magnitude of the drop was notable, particularly after having fallen for the earlier three months. The companies PMI was little modified at 52.5 from 52.6, and above expectations. The composite eased to 50.9 from 52.1. It is the bottom studying since early final 12 months. Here too, the market doesn’t appear dissuaded from its charge hike expectations. The swaps market is totally pricing in a 50 bp hike on the mid-September BOE assembly and a couple of 1-in-3 likelihood of a 75 bp transfer as a substitute. By that point, a brand new Tory chief and Prime Minister will seemingly be offering some further fiscal help.

The Dutch pure gasoline European benchmark (one-month ahead) has doubled right here in Q3 after greater than doubling within the first half. By some estimates, it has reached the equal of $500 a barrel for crude oil. The vitality disaster, which is being exacerbated by a extreme drought, has eclipsed Covid as essentially the most urgent European problem. It is a blow that makes a recession virtually unavoidable and contributes to the strain on the euro, which fell to new 20-year lows. The one-year ahead of German electrical energy rose by greater than 1 / 4 yesterday to a file 710 euros for a megawatt hour earlier than pulling again, which is nearly twice as a lot it was on the finish of July. In France, an identical contract rose 16% to 840 euros, greater than 2/third greater than on the finish of final month. French nuclear reactors had been working at 43% of their capability yesterday, down from 48% earlier than the weekend. There was an unplanned outage at one plant, and one other two had been halted for scheduled upkeep.

German Chancellor Scholz was in Canada yesterday attempting to safe provides. His authorities remains to be debating about extending the lifetime of three nuclear vegetation which are scheduled to close down on the finish of the 12 months. Economic Minister Habeck famous that extending the deadline would save, at most, 2% of German gasoline consumption. However, he did depart open the likelihood that the Isar 2 plant in Bavaria could be prolonged, the low water stage having restricted the vitality shipments on the Rhine. Bavaria produces essentially the most solar energy amongst German states, nevertheless it has a restrictive wind turbine licensing regime. Habeck was additionally important of Bavaria for neglecting different sources of vitality era and blocked the growth of energy transmission traces to deliver wind vitality from northern Germany to its trade. There is concern that the Gazprom’s three-day shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipelines August 31 is a prelude to an prolonged stoppage.

After hovering tightly beneath $0.9950 for many of the Asian session, the poor PMI appeared to drive the euro to the session low close to $0.9900 earlier than the one currency recovered again to $0.9950. A 600 mln euro choice there expires at this time. Thursday and Friday see a mixed 3 bln euro in choices at $1.0 expire, whereas on Friday, 2 bln euros of choices at $0.9850 roll off. The bears are within the driver’s seat. Sterling was offered to a brand new low as effectively, dipping briefly by $1.1720. In the 5 classes by at this time, sterling has fallen almost 4.25 cents. It has met the measuring goal of the double high sample that had unfolded within the first half of the month. The $1.1780-$1.1825 band presents the close by cap.


The Fed funds futures market sees the best likelihood of a 75 bp hike subsequent month because the bounce after a surprisingly robust employment report on August 5. Yesterday’s enhance was the third in a row and essentially the most since that jobs report. The two-year word yield jumped slightly greater than 10 bp to three.34%, the higher finish of the place it has traded for 2 months. The solely knowledge out yesterday was the Chicago Fed’s nationwide exercise report, which blew away market expectations by rising to 0.27 as a substitute falling to -.25. However, that report was for July, and at this time the preliminary August PMI is due. Moreover, markets usually don’t put a lot emphasis on this report. Instead, it appears the market is positioning forward of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The US additionally studies new houses gross sales. The July housing begins and present residence gross sales had been weaker than anticipated, and the chance to the Bloomberg survey median for a 2.5% fall is on the draw back. That stated, it’s clear that slower housing market exercise is fascinating by the Federal Reserve as a part of its effort to tighten monetary situations.

The EU appears to assume Iran’s response to its proposal was “reasonable” which appears so as to add strain on the US. However, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister made an surprising transfer, claiming that the shortage of liquidity and excessive volatility within the oil market was diverging from “fundamentals” and that OPEC+ could also be pressured to reply. In this context, the “response” could be to cut back provide. Although the oil minister didn’t hyperlink his feedback to the opportunity of Iranian oil returning to the market, this gave the impression to be the subtext, and the oil market responded accordingly. October WTI, which had been off slightly greater than 4% yesterday, recovered almost totally in late dealings. From nearly $86.25, October WTI settled close to $90.35. It has traded above $92.00 at this time for the primary time since August 12.

The US greenback made a marginal new excessive for the month in opposition to the Canadian greenback earlier at this time, simply shy of CAD1.3065. However, a consolidative tone has emerged. Initial help is seen within the CAD1.2990-CAD1.3000 space. A break beneath CAD1.2965 would carry the loonie’s tone and would seemingly coincide with stronger equity market positive factors. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped decrease yesterday, and the gaps seem on the weekly charts, and depart bearish island tops behind. Those gaps are necessary from a technical perspective and are both breakaway gaps or measuring gaps, and in both case bearish. That would appear to warn in regards to the draw back dangers to the Canadian greenback, which is especially delicate to the chance surroundings. The Mexican peso is faring higher. The US greenback didn’t take out the pre-weekend excessive (~MXN20.2670) yesterday and is ready to start out the North American session at a three-day low. Around MXN20.04, the US greenback retraces 50% of what it gained because the August 15 low (~MXN19.8125). The subsequent corrective goal is round MXN19.9860.

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Editor’s Note: The abstract bullets for this text had been chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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