Gold Breakout Underway as Silver Eyes Resistance


Gold Technical Price Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold costs surged this week with XAU/USD up greater than 4.8% to trade at 1762 in early US trade on Friday. The rally marks the most important single-week advance since July 2020 with a breakout of the yearly downtrend threatening a significant reversal within the yellow steel. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Review my newest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and extra.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my final Gold Weekly Price Outlook I famous that XAU/USD was, “poised for a possible breakout in the days ahead and the focus is on a weekly close above the 2021 lows. From at trading standpoint, a good place to raise protective stops – look for a reaction on a stretch toward 1791 for guidance.” Gold surged greater than 4.6% this week with value now approaching confluent resistance on the January low-week shut / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 vary at 1788/91- observe that the 2018/2019 trendline additionally converges on this threshold within the weeks forward with the 52-week shifting common simply increased close to ~1806. A breach / weekly shut above this stage is required to counsel a bigger development reversal is underway.

Weekly assist now rests again on the yearly low-week shut / 2021 swing lows at 1675/77 backed by vital assist across the yearly lows on the 2020 March reversal shut and the 50% retracement at 1617/31– a break / weekly shut under this threshold would threaten resumption of the yearly downtrend in the direction of 1560.

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Bottom line: A gold value breakout is underway and the main focus is on doable value inflection / exhaustion heading into resistance goal simply increased. From a buying and selling standpoint, look to scale back parts of lengthy publicity / elevate protecting stops on a stretch in the direction of 1800- look for a bigger response there for steerage. Losses needs to be restricted to 1676 IF value is certainly heading increased right here. Keep in thoughts we have now US elections and key inflation knowledge (CPI) on tap- keep nimble right here. Review my newest Gold Price Short-term Technical Outlook for a better have a look at the near-term XAU/USD trade ranges.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluate his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart


  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.66 (72.70% of merchants are lengthy) – sometimes bearish studying
  • Long positions are 7.82% decrease than yesterday and 20.35% decrease from final week
  • Short positions are 1.69% increased than yesterday and 30.74% increased from final week
  • We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long suggests Gold costs could proceed to fall. Yet merchants are much less net-long than yesterday and in contrast with final week. Recent modifications in sentiment warn that the present Gold value development could quickly reverse increased regardless of the very fact merchants stay net-long.

of purchasers are internet lengthy.

of purchasers are internet quick.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 1% 7% 3%
Weekly -8% 2% -5%

Silver Price Chart – XAG/USD Weekly


Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Silver on Tradingview

An analogous state of affairs is unfolding in Silver though the most important breakout of the yearly downtrend has not occurred but. A breach of the August / October month-to-month highs / resistance on the 50% retracement of the 2020 vary and the 2016 swing excessive takes XAG/USD into the 52-week shifting common right here at ~21.80 with key resistance simply increased at 22.35– a breach / shut above wanted to counsel a bigger reversal is underway right here.

A topside breach retains exposes subsequent targets on the 2022 yearly open at 23.28 and the April high-week reversal shut at 24.05– look for a bigger response there IF reached. Initial assist rests across the median-line (at present ~20.10s) backed by a extra important confluence zone at 18.28/68– weak point past this threshold would threaten resumption of the broader downtrend.

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– Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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