EUR/USD Rate Eyes August High Ahead of US Retail Sales Report


Euro Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD clears the September excessive (1.0198) following the larger-than-expected slowdown within the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the trade charge on monitor to check the August excessive (1.0369) forward of the US Retail Sales report amid rising hypothesis for a smaller Federal Reserve charge hike in December.

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Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

EUR/USD rallies to a recent month-to-month excessive (1.0326) because the Greenback weakens towards all of its main counterparts, and the trade charge might proceed to understand over the approaching days as indicators of easing inflation fuels bets for a shift within the Fed’s hiking-cycle.

Source: CME

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market members are pricing a better than 80% likelihood for a 50bp charge hike on December 14, and it stays to be seen if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will modify its method in combating inflation because the central financial institution pledges to “take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation.”

Until then, the Euro might proceed to understand towards its US counterpart because the FOMC braces for “a sustained period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions,” however the US Retail Sales report might prop up the Greenback because the replace is anticipated to point out a pickup in family consumption.


Retail spending is predicted to extend 0.9% in October after holding flat in the course of the earlier month, and a optimistic improvement might push the FOMC to ship one other 75bp charge hike at its final assembly for 2022 as Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledges that “incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.”

With that mentioned, hypothesis for a smaller Fed charge hike in December might preserve EUR/USD afloat over the approaching days, however an upbeat US Retail Sales report might curb the weak point within the Greenback because it raises the FOMC’s scope to pursue a extremely restrictive coverage.

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— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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