USD/CNH Technical Outlook: Short-Term Pullback to Continue?


USD, CNH, US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, USD/CNH – Technical Outlook:

  • USD/CNH has failed to break above main long-term resistance
  • The fall under key assist is a sign that USD/CNH’s rally has stalled for now
  • What is the outlook and what are the important thing ranges to watch?

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The Chinese yuan’s rise above key resistance in opposition to the US Dollar looks like affirmation that downward strain on the Chinese currency has pale within the interim.

USD/CNH 240-minutes Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

USD/CNH has fallen under fairly a robust cushion on the October 27 low of seven.17, close to the 200-period shifting common on the 240-minute charts. It rebounded final week from this barrier however failed to cross above the mid-point of a barely downward-sloping channel from the tip of October (at about 7.25) –a path that was highlighted within the earlier replace. The bearish break has triggered a Double Top sample (on the October and early-November highs), opening the best way towards the October low of seven.01 (see chart above).

USD/CNH Monthly Chart


Chart Created Using TradingView

A month in the past, I identified the chance of a pause within the USD/CNH bull run. At that point, the pair briefly rose above a serious hurdle at 7.20, the place the 2019 and 2020 highs coincided with the higher fringe of a barely upward-sloping channel from 2018 (see chart above). At the identical time, damaging divergence (rising value related to stalling or weakening momentum) on the month-to-month, weekly, and every day charts indicated that the seven-month-long rally was displaying indicators of fatigue.

USD/CNH Daily Chart


Chart Created Using TradingView

Zooming in on the every day charts, the ground at 7.01 is bolstered on the 89-day shifting common (now at about 7.00), which hasn’t been damaged for the reason that USD/CNH rally started earlier this yr. Hence, some kind of a rebound from round 7.00-7.01 wouldn’t be stunning. However, any such transfer may encounter stiff resistance marked by former assist at 7.17. Still, upward momentum on longer-term charts, together with the weekly and the month-to-month charts, stays robust (regardless of the latest drop in USD/CNH), so any retreat could possibly be restricted.

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— Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for

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