Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels
Gold costs are trying to mark a 3rd consecutive weekly advance with a rally of greater than 10.6% off the yearly lows now approaching key resistance targets into the November excessive. The threat rises for inflection within the days forward with the weekly opening-range now in focus. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts. Review my newest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and extra.
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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview
Technical Outlook: In final month’s Gold Short-term Price Outlook I famous that XAU/USD was approaching downtrend resistance and that, “a breach / close above confluent Fibonacci resistance at 1682/86 is needed to suggest a larger reversal may be underway with such a scenario exposing the August low-day close / 61.8% retracement at 1729/34– look for a larger reaction there IF reached.” A topside breach on November eleventh fueled a rally of greater than 3% with gold now approaching the following lateral resistance zone at 1788/86– a area outlined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly vary and the January low-week shut. Risk for worth inflection into this threshold within the days forward.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min
Notes: A more in-depth take a look at Gold worth motion reveals XAU/USD buying and selling inside the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the October / November lows with the 75% parallel additional highlighting resistance into 1788/91. Ultimately, a breach / shut above the 200-day / 52-week shifting averages / August excessive at 1805/07 is required to gas the following leg increased in worth in direction of 1842.
Initial assist now rests with the weekly opening-range low / December low at 1753 backed by 1729 and 1702 with medium-term bullish invalidation now raised to 1680. Ultimately, a break / shut under the yearly low-day shut at 1659 could be wanted to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.
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Bottom line: The gold breakout is now approaching key technical pivot zones with the weekly opening-range taking form simply below- look to the near-term breakout for steerage. From a buying and selling standpoint, losses must be restricted to 1700 IF worth is heading increased on this stretch with a detailed above 1807 wanted to clear the best way. Review my newest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a better take a look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical buying and selling ranges.
For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluation his Foundations of Technical Analysis sequence on Building a Trading Strategy
Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart
- A abstract of IG Client Sentiment reveals merchants are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.51 (71.51% of merchants are lengthy) – sometimes bearish studying
- Long positions are 1.82% decrease than yesterday and 17.30% decrease from final week
- Short positions are 1.08% decrease than yesterday and 12.50% increased from final week
- We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests Gold costs could proceed to fall. Yet merchants are much less net-long than yesterday and in contrast with final week. From a sentiment standpoint, the latest modifications in positioning warn that the present Gold worth development could quickly reverse increased regardless of the actual fact merchants stay net-long.
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– Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex