Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: More USD/JPY Weakness Ahead?

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen, USD/JPY – Technical Outlook:

  • USD/JPY downward correction will not be over simply but.
  • There is an opportunity of a drop towards the 200-day shifting common
  • What are the signposts to look at?

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USD/JPY SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL FORECAST – SLIGHTLY BEARISH

The failure of USD/JPY to increase positive factors final week might be a warning signal of some extra draw back within the close to time period.

USD/JPY turned decrease from the November 21 excessive 142.25, coming off key resistance on the 89-day shifting common. The final time it was decidedly beneath this barrier was in early 2021. The three-month shifting common has now become resistance, having acted as assist earlier.

USD/JPY 240-minutes Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

Importantly, the pair has reversed positive factors from beneath 143.00-143.15 (the 50% retracement of the decline on the week of November 7-11) and has did not cross an analogous retracement of the large bearish candlestick that appeared on the every day chart on November 10.

When a large-body candle such because the one created on the weekly chart of November 7-11 and the every day chart on November 10 seems, the 50% retracement of that candle tends to function strong resistance from a development perspective. Big strikes are a mirrored image of higher conviction amongst market members and a sign of the development.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

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Chart Created Using TradingView

In a case the place a big bearish candle seems, the probabilities of a renewed decline scale back meaningfully if the next rebound clears the midway mark, versus a situation the place that fifty% hurdle will not be pierced. In the latter case, the possibility of a retest of the earlier low will increase.

USD/JPY is now again close to this month’s low of 137.70, flashing a pink sign for a drop towards the 200-day shifting common (now at about 134.00). For the chances of a decline towards the 200-day shifting common to cut back, USD/JPY must clear the speedy ceiling is at 142.25. Even then, resistance within the 143.00-143.15 space would stay the road within the sand.

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— Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com





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