GBP/USD Edges Higher Despite UK GDP Shrinking More Than Expected in Q3


UK GDP Key Points:

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GBP/USD continues to flirt with a break or bounce of the 200-day MA slightly below the 1.2100 degree. Earlier this morning we had weaker than anticipated UK Q3 GDP knowledge which didn’t encourage a break decrease with the shortage of liquidity in markets little question taking part in a task. The knowledge provides additional credence to the assumption that the UK has slipped right into a recession.

UK GDP knowledge is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Q3, a downward revision from the primary estimate of 0.2%. We have seen downward revisions throughout 2022 that means that actual GDP is now estimated to be 0.8%, beneath its pre-pandemic degree (revised from the earlier estimate of being beneath 0.4%). Real households’ disposable revenue (RHDI) continues to really feel the results of the rising price of residing because it fell by 0.5% this quarter; that is the fourth consecutive quarter of damaging development in the RHDI. Output is now estimated to have fallen by 0.3% which was revised from a primary estimate fall of 0.2%, primarily reflecting revisions to estimates of manufacturing and building output.

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Most service sub-sectors have seen a slowdown, but providers output grew by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2022, revised up from a primary estimate of flat output. Compared with pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic ranges, providers output is now 1.3% beneath its Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 ranges, revised down from beforehand 0.9% beneath. We did see the UK’s trade deficit for items and providers enhance in Quarter 3 2022.

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Market response

GBP/USD continues to flirt and discover help off the 200-day MA. This mornings weaker than anticipated GDP knowledge appeared prefer it may facilitate a break decrease, nevertheless the weaker greenback has seen the pair edge increased in early European trade. The poor GDP knowledge and barely dovish stance by the BoE final week are more likely to cap upside good points because the week winds down.

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The pair is up 60 pips from its each day low across the 1.2060 degree, with a each day candle break and shut beneath the 200-day MA might even see a check of the psychological 1.2000 degree. Upside resistance rests across the 1.2200 degree ought to we see additional upside.

GBPUSD Daily Chart, December 22, 2022

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— Written by Zain Vawda for

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