Path of Least Resistance is Lower after Fed Ditches Hawkish View



  • U.S. greenback good points on Friday on risk-off temper, however publish heavy losses for the week
  • The Fed’s resolution to ditch its hawkish steering will assist stabilize sentiment quickly, however the timeline is unsure
  • Markets are starting to cost price cuts for this yr, making a bearish backdrop for the U.S. currency

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The U.S. greenback, as measured by the DXY index, gained floor Friday afternoon, up about 0.5% to 103.11 amid risk-off temper, however was on observe for a 0.7% drop on the week following the latest stoop in U.S. Treasury yields, which was accelerated by the Fed’s dovish hike at its March assembly.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised rates of interest by 25 foundation factors, in keeping with expectations, however signaled that its mountain climbing cycle could also be coming to an finish in response to nervousness over U.S. banks within the wake of the speedy and surprising failure of two mid-sized regional lenders (SVB and SBNY).

The turmoil within the banking sector that triggered tremors on Wall Street earlier this month is more likely to result in a credit score crunch for households and companies within the coming months, making a significant disinflationary course of. This will ease stress on the central financial institution, limiting the necessity for overly restrictive coverage.

The economic system doesn’t but mirror the true challenges that can end result from considerably tighter lending requirements, however the destructive results will quickly be seen. Forward-looking markets acknowledge that liquidity will probably be squeezed by latest occasions and have due to this fact already begun to cost in price cuts for this yr.

The chart beneath exhibits how federal funds futures contracts for 2023 low cost an rate of interest of 3.96% in December. This implies a number of cuts in borrowing prices from present ranges by the top of the yr.

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Source: TradingView

While the Fed has pushed again in opposition to 2023 coverage easing, its actions recommend that monetary stability will probably be prioritized over the inflation battle, which is a slower-moving downside. In this context, it is only a matter of time earlier than the Fed caves to “financial dominance” and pivots to a full-fledged dovish stance.

Given that the Fed is seen reversing course quickly and stands able to act if essential to include systemic dangers, the U.S. greenback is more likely to stay on a depreciatory path. Granted, uncertainty stays excessive, however sentiment ought to stabilize quickly, with the Fed and different U.S. authorities backstopping any fallout from the banking system in any respect prices.

In phrases of technical analysis, the U.S. greenback presents a destructive bias after sharp losses since March 9, when costs have been rejected by cluster resistance and descended beneath a long-term ascending trendline.

With this backdrop, the trail of least resistance seems to be decrease, however to have conviction within the bearish narrative, a break beneath help at 102.00 is wanted (50% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2021/September 2022 advance). If this situation performs out, the main focus shifts to February’s low.

On the flip facet, if bulls regain management of the market and push the DXY index larger, preliminary resistance comes at 104.00, adopted by 104.60.

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Chart, histogram  Description automatically generated

USD (DXY) Chart Prepared Using TradingView

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